September 28, 2025
The complex and frequent regulatory shifts within the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program are the primary drivers of volatility in Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices, and we’ve all been stuck riding the RIN rollercoaster.
RINs are the compliance currency and market incentive of the RFS, and it’s crucial your company understands how to value and plan your RINs.
When the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or Congress signals a potential change in RFS policy, such as delays in setting Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs), the granting of Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), or proposals for market-altering reforms (like a price cap), it immediately creates ambiguity regarding the future supply and demand for RINs. This regulatory uncertainty fuels speculation, causing obligated parties (refiners and importers) and other market participants to rapidly adjust their expectations, resulting in sharp, often dramatic, fluctuations in RIN prices. This volatility also discourages long-term investment in biofuel production and infrastructure, further complicating the market.
These policy shocks can cause RIN values to fluctuate dramatically, and navigating a landscape of constant regulatory and policy shifts can feel like trying to plan a roadtrip while the whole world is under construction.
Knowing there are many more peaks and valleys ahead on the RIN rollercoaster, here are five essential tips to help navigate a time of policy uncertainty for a successful RIN management strategy:
- Know how the RIN value is integrated into the price of the renewable fuel you purchase.
- If you take RINs, have a strategy for marketing RINs that meets your company’s risk tolerance and cash flow requirements.
- Know what factors impact RIN prices so you can be prepared for market fluctuations.
- If you import diesel or gasoline into the U.S., know the cost of your RFS obligation when pricing the product.
- Meet your RFS compliance requirements.
These tips can help set you up for success. To take it a step further, RINAlliance provides an innovative technology solution, along with expert support, to help you navigate the RFS for successful RIN management. Our platform offers essential tools such as daily RIN valuations, forecasting and projection analytics, and the ability to schedule and track forward sales, enabling blenders to make fast and informed decisions to maximize revenue and mitigate market exposure.
In addition, the RINAlliance team of experts simplifies RFS compliance with full-service EPA reporting and risk-aware RIN marketing, providing the necessary training and expert guidance to confidently navigate regulatory changes and optimize your overall RIN portfolio.
Uncertainty will continue to be the name of the game as we await more upcoming policy decisions. EPA rarely meets RFS deadlines for decision making, and any new concept is likely to be litigated and create further delays.
Our team is here to help you ride the RFS rollercoaster all the way to successful RIN management.
By Reo Menning, President & CEO